Why Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs can go on to win the Super Bowl

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Few will deny that the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs campaign was not up to par.

Patrick Mahomes lost more games as a starter this season than in any previous one (six), while the offense never found a solid rhythm.

Finishing ninth in offensive yards-per-game (351.3) this season after leading the league in that department in 2020 and 2022 is not good enough.

KC also jumped down to sixth in passing this season, averaging 246.4 yards through the air per game, despite leading the NFL in that category a season ago and in 2020.

For as poor as the regular-season was, however, there’s still plenty of reason to believe the Chiefs can represent the AFC in this year’s Super Bowl.

Road Warriors

Being the #3 seed in the AFC is the lowest position Andy Reid’s seen his team begin the playoffs since 2017 (4).

Alex Smith was under centre on that occasion in Mahomes’ rookie year as the backup.

Barring a pair of victories by the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2023 Chiefs will be in the unfamiliar position of playing on the road before the Super Bowl.

Mahomes has never had to play an AFC postseason fixture outside of Arrowhead.

As unusual as that scenario may be, though, it shouldn’t hamper their chances of potentially going all the way.

They begin the postseason at Arrowhead on Saturday against Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins’ #1 offensive unit.

Kansas City actually performed better on the road this season, boasting a record of 6-2 while going 4-4 at Arrowhead and 1-0 at a neutral site in Germany, with that lone victory being against Miami.

In 49 career away games, Mahomes has 15,033 passing yards and a quarterback rating of 107.6 with 119 touchdown tosses.

Conversely, he has 13,391 yards passing, 100 scores and a 99.3 QB rating in 47 home contests.

Thriving Under Pressure

Mahomes seems to thrive on the road, and when you combine that with Steve Spagnuolo‘s strong defense, KC should be among the contending teams.

In 2023, the Chiefs’ defense ranked second in yards (4,926) and points allowed (294) while finishing third regarding net passing yards per attempt (4.9).

They were first in the NFL for pressures (174) and pressure percentage (26.7), registering 57 sacks, the second-most behind Baltimore (60).

The Baltimore Ravens will be Kansas City’s biggest competition in the AFC, led by Lamar Jackson’s MVP-worthy campaign.

Jackson hasn’t been nearly as successful in the playoffs as Mahomes though.

The Ravens pivot has just one win in four career postseason starts, never making it beyond the Divisional Round.

A Chiefs and Bills win would see KC travel to Baltimore for the Divisional Round.

If the Steelers upset Buffalo and Kansas City wins, then the Chiefs host the winner of Cleveland/Houston.

Like Jackson, the Texans have never made it beyond the Divisional Round, while the Browns have only won one playoff game this century.

There’s still a chance the Bills and Chiefs add another chapter to their recent rivalry should both teams win their playoff games.

While Josh Allen has a winning record against Mahomes in the regular season, the Bills’ QB has never beaten him in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh is relying on third-string QB Mason Rudolph, while the status of star pass rusher T.J. Watt is up in the air.

Whichever way you slice it, it should not come as a surprise if the Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl even though it’s not been their best campaign.