The one area which could split Chiefs and Ravens in decisive AFC Championship game showdown

Add as preferred source on Google

Sunday’s AFC Championship Game features two teams who are virtually dead even.

The Baltimore Ravens went 13-4 during the regular season, winning two more games than the Kansas City Chiefs.

In all likelihood, it’s the MVP quarterbacks from each of the previous two seasons squaring off, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

Then there’s the defenses, who are both exceptional.

The Ravens and Chiefs finished first and second in sacks during the regular season with 60 and 67, respectively.

Chris Jones and George Karlaftis each had 10.5 sacks, while Baltimore’s Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy had 9.5 and 9.

There are few advantages in either secondary, with the Chiefs Trent McDuffie a First-team All-Pro and L’Jarius Sneed.

Sneed has yet to allow a touchdown in the regular season or playoffs, holding Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill to a combined 83 yards receiving on eight total catches in KC’s two postseason victories.

Baltimore has an exceptionally strong safety in Kyle Hamilton, while Marlon Humphrey’s been to three Pro Bowls.

Both offenses have flashy rookie receivers, with Rashee Rice and Zay Flowers putting up sparkling numbers in the regular season and playoffs.

Travis Kelce had many more receiving yards in 2023 (984) than Isaiah Likely (411), though both are making solid contributions in the playoffs, and there’s a chance the Ravens get Mark Andrews back this weekend.

On special teams, Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker are as dependable as they come; both have plenty of leg and accuracy, with each former Super Bowl champion consistently making clutch kicks.

In pass protection, there’s Creed Humphrey and Tyler Linderbaum, the top two AFC Pro Bowl centres.

Then there’s Andy Reid facing another pupil in John Harbaugh, two Super Bowl winning coaches.

With everything so even, what could make the difference this weekend?

Ground and Pound

The rushing battle could determine who goes to the Super Bowl.

As a team, Baltimore averaged the most rushing yards per game in 2023, but Isiah Pacheco had more rushing yards than any individual on either side this weekend.

Pacheco had 935 yards rushing, while Baltimore’s top contributor, Lamar Jackson, had 821.

If there’s a kryptonite in either of these defensive units, stopping the run is probably it.

During the regular season, both allowed 4.5 yards per carry, with Baltimore conceding 1,860 yards and the Chiefs 1,925.

However they’ve each been pretty sharp against the run in the postseason.

Baltimore held Devin Singletary to a 2.4-yard average per carry, Raheem Mostert had just 33 yards versus KC, and James Cook 3.4 yards per carry.

Pacheco’s enraged running has come to life in the playoffs with 186 yards in two games with two scores.

Justice Hall has 66 yards rushing for Baltimore, but is averaging 5.1 yards per gain.

We’re also well aware that Jackson and Mahomes can run efficiently, the former usually doing it by design and the latter excelling at scrambling.

In the past, running the ball efficiently was the best way to beat the Chiefs, limiting their offensive possessions and scoring on those long drives.

On Sunday, the ball will be in the Chiefs court to do that against the Ravens and close off the running lanes against Lamar.

There are many intriguing matchups to watch this weekend, but none is more important than who wins the rushing battle.