Why the Chiefs may still be on a Super Bowl Trajectory

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To the surprise of no one, the Kansas City Chiefs are in a dogfight for first overall in the AFC.

While their record of 7-2 suggests they are in the running to repeat as Super Bowl champions, many still aren’t convinced Andy Reid‘s crew can get it done again.

The obvious sticking point for the naysayers out there, which has been repeatedly said, is their lack of offensive production, averaging 23.1 points per game.

It would also be fair to note their struggles on the ground; where they rank 19th in team rushing with 4.1 yards per carry.

Then there’s the receivers’ room, which, outside of Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice has not provided a consistent service to reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes.

Admittedly, we aren’t seeing them blow away their regular season competition like in past campaigns.

However, if you look at history, their current form is sustainable.

Defense Wins Championships

Perhaps one of the most overused catchphrases in the NFL is “Defense wins championships”, coined by the late Alabama coach Paul “Bear” Bryant.

If you look at some of the Super Bowl winners in the early part of this century, that quote would ring true, as the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the 2003 New England Patriots and the 2013 Seattle Seahawks were all virtually impenetrable.

It’s been a while since we can say a team won the Super Bowl in that fashion, though, as the Chiefs (2022 and 2019), LA Rams (2021) and Bucs (2020) all had some highly-rated offenses with top-end receivers and decent defensive units with a couple standouts.

To this point of 2023, it’s clearly the Chiefs’ defense which is keeping them winning, second in sacks (31), fourth in yards-allowed-per-game (288.2), and they are fourth in points against (143).

They’ve held seven of their last nine opponents to under 20 points.

Compared to some of the Super Bowl teams from the early 2000s, Kansas City’s 143 points conceded is a little more than the 2000 Ravens (98) and the 02 Bucs (109) after nine weeks.

However, the 2023 Chiefs have conceded fewer points than each of the past 12 Super Bowl winners at this same stage of the season, matching the Green Bay Packers total from 2010 (143).

Good Omen for the Chiefs?

It’s debatable whether or not defense is still the recipe for winning championships in the NFL, though if you are superstitious, there are some encouraging numbers for the Chiefs right now.

First, they are 7-2, the same record as the previous two Super winners after their opening nine games.

Overall, the Chiefs are not as bad statistically as you might think; in fact, quite the contrary.

In total, DVOA (defense adjusted value over average), they are second behind the Baltimore Ravens.

Nine games left in the Chiefs’ regular season, and a lot can change, but all things considered, this team are not in as bad a spot as many might think overall.

The AFC should be much more competitive, with the Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Miami Dolphins all neck-and-neck, with KC for the top seed in the AFC, though the Chiefs have a slight edge on each.

But as things stand, there’s no reason to doubt that the Chiefs could be on the road back to the Super Bowl.