Playoff Calculator reveals Chiefs’ odds of a First-Round Bye

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The road to the Super Bowl for the reigning champions could be a little longer than we are used to.

With a second successive defeat last Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs are now at 8-5, just a game ahead of the Denver Broncos in the AFC West.

Not only has that defeat made the race for the division tighter, but KC failed to gain ground in the race for the #1 seed in the AFC.

Baltimore leads the conference at 10-3 with Miami holding the second automatic place in the AFC Divisional Round (9-3).

Here’s a breakdown of the postseason picture for Andy Reid‘s group as they look to avoid losing three in a row this weekend.

Chiefs Playoff Picture

According to SB Nation, Kansas City has a 98% chance of making the postseason based on a playoff calculator from the NY Times, which simulates the remaining games.

In truth, the AFC is a gigantic cluster of teams in the playoff mix, with 11 currently on seven or more victories.

The Bills, Bengals, Broncos, and Texans are all on the outside of the playoff picture heading into this weekend, but they are right on the heels of Kansas City, just a game behind.

Having teams breathing down their neck is an unfamiliar feeling for the Chiefs, with KC finishing first or second in the AFC over the previous five campaigns.

Those high odds of making the playoffs likely stem from the Chiefs remaining games, most of which on paper seem straightforward.

At 3-10, New England is out of the playoff picture, the Raiders are 5-8 and fading, while Brandon Staley and the LA Chargers look like a sinking ship.

Mixed into that, there will be a challenging game on New Year’s Eve against the surging Cincinnati Bengals, rediscovering their mojo under backup QB Jake Browning.

If Kansas City can’t make the playoffs with their schedule, it’s not just the offense we should be questioning.

Kansas City’s Divisional Odds

The Chiefs must win three of their final four games to ensure they claim the AFC West for an eighth successive season.

They and Denver have two remaining contests against AFC West opponents, each facing the Chargers and Raiders.

Denver and KC are 1-1 against one another, but the Chiefs hold the second tiebreaker thanks to a 3-1 record versus AFC West opponents, with the Broncos at 2-2.

How the Chiefs can earn a Bye

What this losing streak has done more than anything is put the Chiefs’ chances of resting for a week come playoff time into question.

Claiming one of those two AFC slots isn’t out of the question just yet, but it will now require some moving parts.

The easiest path to a bye would be for the Chiefs to run the table and hope Miami slips up.

That is a possibility following the ankle injury of Tyreek Hill and the fact that the Phins face the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens and Bills down the stretch, with those final three games no slam dunk.

The Ravens’ schedule isn’t a sure thing either, as they face four playoff teams: the Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins and Steelers.

Simulations lead to good banter, but virtually nothing is impossible if we’ve learned anything from the AFC this season.